Saudi Crude Exports Hit 6 Million Barrels a Day, Their Highest Since the Iran War Began, Despite a Pipeline Shutdown

Saudi Arabia has restored its crude oil exports to pre-war levels, even as fighting in the region has intensified and one of its most important pipelines was knocked out of service.

The kingdom is exporting about 6 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude in September, according to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler reported by CNBC on September 25. That is the highest level since the war involving Iran began about seven months ago, and a surge of nearly 80 per cent from the 3.4 million bpd exported in August.

The September figure brings Saudi shipments back to roughly their 2025 monthly average, a notable recovery given the disruption the region's energy trade has faced this year. Estimates from different tanker-tracking services vary, and some put the September figure lower, but all point to a sharp rebound.

Exports up, despite a pipeline outage

The recovery is all the more striking because Saudi Arabia closed its East-West pipeline this month after it was damaged in a drone attack launched from Iraq.

The pipeline, which carries crude from the kingdom's eastern oil fields to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea, is a critical strategic asset. It gives Saudi Arabia an export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which a large share of the world's seaborne oil normally passes. With Hormuz shipping disrupted by the conflict, the pipeline had become especially important.

According to reporting summarised by Briefs, Reuters reported that the pipeline restarted mid-week at reduced rates, with throughput increasing. Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser has indicated that such interruptions to infrastructure typically last "days, not weeks or months", although the company has not provided a specific restart confirmation.

Where the barrels are going

With the western route constrained, the surge in exports has come largely through the kingdom's Gulf coast terminals, which means tankers must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg reported that a surge in shipments from Saudi Arabia's Gulf ports drove exports to their highest since the war began.

Traffic through Hormuz has partly recovered but remains below normal. According to Kpler data cited by Briefs, seven-day average flows through the strait stood at about 13.2 million bpd, compared with around 17 million bpd before the conflict. The US military has established a protected shipping lane along the coast of Oman, which has helped tankers move through the area.

Price impact

The pipeline closure briefly jolted oil markets. Brent crude spiked to nearly $110 a barrel after the shutdown, before easing as supply concerns diminished.

By Friday, prices had fallen further on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen fully. Brent settled at about $104 a barrel, and US benchmark West Texas Intermediate at about $92, as Iran signalled interest in returning to a memorandum of understanding with the United States from June.

Higher Saudi exports add to the supply available to the market and help cap prices. But the fact that most of those barrels must pass through a conflict zone means risk remains elevated. Insurance costs for tankers in the region have risen sharply this year, and any new attack on shipping could send prices higher again.

Why Saudi Arabia is pushing volumes

Saudi Arabia's decision to maximise exports serves several purposes. It supports government revenue at a time of elevated spending. It helps the kingdom maintain market share and relationships with key customers in Asia. And it demonstrates the reliability of Saudi supply at a time when buyers are questioning the security of Gulf energy.

It also reflects the kingdom's large spare production capacity. As the leading producer within OPEC and the broader OPEC+ alliance, Saudi Arabia has greater ability than almost any other country to raise output quickly when market conditions allow.

What it means for India

The recovery in Saudi exports is significant for India, one of the kingdom's largest customers. India imports the great majority of the crude oil it consumes, and Saudi Arabia is among its leading suppliers alongside Iraq, Russia and the United Arab Emirates.

Higher oil prices this year have widened India's import bill, put pressure on the rupee and contributed to inflation. They have also weighed on Indian equities: the Nifty 50 has fallen for seven consecutive weeks, with elevated crude cited by analysts as one of the key drivers.

More Saudi supply reaching the market, and any sustained decline in prices, would ease those pressures. However, because most Saudi barrels are now moving through Hormuz, Indian refiners remain exposed to the risk of renewed disruption.

Indian refiners have diversified their sources of supply over recent years, increasing purchases from Russia, the United States and other producers. That flexibility has helped cushion the impact of the Gulf disruption, but it cannot fully offset the effect of higher global prices.

A market still on edge

The rebound in Saudi exports shows how quickly energy flows can adjust, even in a conflict. But it does not remove the underlying risks.

The drone attack on the East-West pipeline demonstrates that critical infrastructure remains vulnerable. The partial recovery of Hormuz traffic depends on military protection and on the course of diplomacy between Washington and Tehran. And the escalation in fighting involving Iran-backed militants, reported by CNBC, suggests the conflict is far from over.

Oil traders will be watching several indicators closely in the coming weeks: the pace at which the East-West pipeline returns to full capacity, tanker traffic through Hormuz, any progress in talks between the United States and Iran, and decisions by OPEC+ on production levels.

Volumes back, confidence not yet

Saudi Arabia's return to 6 million bpd of crude exports is a reminder of the kingdom's central role in global energy markets and its ability to adapt under pressure. Even with its main bypass pipeline disrupted, it has restored shipments to pre-war levels.

For consumers and importing nations such as India, that is welcome news, helping to take some heat out of prices. But with most of those barrels travelling through one of the world's most contested waterways, the oil market remains only one incident away from another spike. The recovery in volumes has not yet translated into a recovery in confidence.