Sensex Snaps Losing Run With 315-Point Gain, but Nifty Posts Its Longest Weekly Slide Since the 2020 Covid Crash

Indian equities ended a punishing week on a firmer note on Friday, September 25, as selective buying in banking, auto and consumer stocks lifted the benchmarks off the lows hit a day earlier. The BSE Sensex added 315.20 points, or 0.43 per cent, to settle at 73,895.74. The NSE Nifty 50 rose 77.40 points, or 0.34 per cent, to close at 23,140.50.

The rebound was modest, and it came against a sobering backdrop. According to Business Standard's market coverage, the Nifty lost about 5.8 per cent, or roughly 1,430 points, over the week and closed lower for a seventh consecutive week. That is the index's longest run of weekly losses since the February–March 2020 sell-off triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Friday's session followed one of the sharpest single-day falls of the year. On Thursday, September 24, the Sensex had dropped 1.67 per cent to 73,580.54 and the Nifty 1.64 per cent to 23,063.10, as the US 10-year Treasury yield climbed to its highest level since 2007 and Brent crude traded above $107 a barrel.

A range-bound session that held a key level

Trading on Friday was cautious for most of the day. The benchmarks opened slightly lower, with the Nifty briefly slipping toward 23,035, before recovering through the afternoon. By the close, the index had defended the psychologically important 23,000 level that traders had been watching all week.

Banking led the recovery. Axis Bank was the top Nifty gainer, rising 3.03 per cent to ₹1,222.40 on volumes of about 69.2 million shares, according to data compiled by Angel One. Asian Paints gained 2.14 per cent to ₹2,444, and Mahindra & Mahindra climbed 1.75 per cent to ₹3,035, extending a run in automobile stocks that also lifted the Nifty Auto index.

Realty stocks were among the other outperformers, while the Nifty IT and Nifty Pharma indices ended lower. Among the laggards, Max Healthcare Institute fell 3.06 per cent to ₹1,014, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles slipped 1.54 per cent to ₹290.45, and Infosys lost 1.41 per cent to ₹1,000.20.

Broader market: a split verdict

The broader market reflected the same hesitation. The Nifty Midcap 100 ended 0.14 per cent lower, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 gained 0.14 per cent. Volatility expectations eased: the India VIX, which measures expected near-term swings in the Nifty, fell about 7.25 per cent during the session to 11.77.

One of the day's most striking individual moves came from Transport Corporation of India, whose shares rallied nearly 15 per cent after the logistics company announced a share buyback proposal. Buybacks have become a recurring theme during the correction as cash-rich companies step in to support valuations that have fallen with the wider market.

Why the market has been falling

The seven-week slide has not been driven by any single domestic shock. Instead, a cluster of global pressures has weighed on Indian assets.

The first is the bond market. US government borrowing costs have surged, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5.2 per cent this week, a level last seen before the global financial crisis. Higher US yields tend to pull capital away from emerging markets, because investors can earn more on dollar assets that carry less risk.

The second is energy. Crude oil has stayed elevated because of the conflict involving Iran and disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. India imports most of the crude it uses, so higher oil prices widen the trade deficit, put pressure on the rupee and raise input costs for a wide range of companies.

The third is valuation. Indian equities entered 2026 trading at a premium to most emerging-market peers. When global conditions tighten, that premium leaves less room for error, and foreign investors have been quick to take money off the table.

Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments captured the balance in his end-of-day note, saying that elevated oil prices and global yields may continue to temper risk appetite, although improving valuations support selective accumulation.

What the charts are saying

Technical analysts remain wary. Rupak De of LKP Securities noted that the Nifty continues to form lower highs and lower lows, the classic signature of a downtrend. He placed immediate support at 23,000 and resistance in the 23,200–23,300 band. A sustained move above that resistance would be needed before traders begin to talk about a trend reversal rather than a relief rally.

For long-term investors, the more useful question is not where the index goes next week, but what the correction has done to valuations. A near-6 per cent weekly fall, following six earlier down weeks, has taken a meaningful amount of froth out of the market. That is what Geojit's Nair was pointing to when he spoke of improving valuations supporting selective accumulation. Friday's buying was concentrated in large, liquid names such as Axis Bank and Mahindra & Mahindra, which is typical of the early stage of bargain-hunting after a steep fall.

The global picture on Friday

Asian markets were mixed during the Indian session after Wall Street had fallen for a third straight day on Thursday. Later on Friday, however, US stocks recovered: the S&P 500 rose 0.5 per cent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.9 per cent as oil prices eased on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen. If that improvement in global sentiment holds, it could offer Indian equities a firmer start next week.

Oil remains the variable to watch. Reports that Washington and Tehran are exploring a phased arrangement to restore tanker traffic have already pulled Brent back from its highs. Any concrete progress would ease one of the biggest macro pressures on India's markets and its currency.

What to watch next week

Several events will shape the next leg for Dalal Street. The Moneyview IPO closes on September 28, with listing tentatively scheduled for October 1, and will test whether retail and institutional investors still have an appetite for new fintech listings during a correction. The listing of Snapdeal parent AceVector, whose IPO opened this week, will provide a similar signal for consumer internet companies.

The start of October also brings monthly auto sales data and the manufacturing and services purchasing managers' indices, which will show whether higher fuel prices are starting to hurt domestic demand. Investors will also track foreign portfolio flows closely: a slowdown in selling would be the clearest sign that the worst of the global risk-off move is passing.

For now, Friday's session offered a pause rather than a turn. The Sensex and Nifty closed higher, the 23,000 level held, and volatility eased. But with seven consecutive weekly losses on the board, the burden of proof remains with the bulls. A durable recovery will likely need two things that are largely outside India's control: a stabilisation in US bond yields and a lasting fall in crude prices.

Until then, market participants expect the pattern of the past few weeks, sharp falls followed by short, selective rebounds, to continue. For investors with a longer horizon, that volatility may present opportunities in quality companies whose share prices have fallen further than their earnings prospects justify.